Energy, Trump, and the Big Picture: What Investors Need to Know

Let’s be real—keeping up with the market can feel overwhelming.

That’s why we put this together. Just the big stuff, once a quarter, so you can stay confident and focused—no CNBC stress required.

Oil Prices: A Spike, Then Stability

Global tensions in the Middle East recently pushed oil prices above $74 per barrel. That stirred some worries about rising gas and food costs. But here’s the good news: prices have since cooled back to around $70, and the U.S. remains energy independent, producing more oil and gas than any country on Earth.

So while you may have felt a bump at the gas pump, it’s not 2022 all over again—and there’s no need to panic in our opinion. We're far from the $120 per barrel levels we saw during the early Russia-Ukraine conflict.

What Trump Has Been Doing—In Simple Terms

Former President Trump has re-entered the political and economic scene in a big way. Here’s what’s happening—and what it means for your money.

1. Deregulation Push

A recent Supreme Court decision has made it easier for Trump’s team to roll back federal regulations—especially in business-friendly states like Texas and Florida. This has energized sectors like energy, banking, and tech, which stand to benefit from fewer restrictions.

2. Tariff Strategy

Trump has revived trade tariffs on countries like China, Canada, and Mexico. These moves tend to raise short-term costs for imported goods but aim to protect U.S. jobs and manufacturing. Markets bounced back after he paused new tariffs in April, suggesting investors are adapting to this strategy.

3. Tax Cuts & Debt Growth

He’s proposing to extend the 2017 tax cuts and increase federal spending. That can boost economic growth now—but also adds to long-term national debt. It’s a classic tradeoff that needs careful monitoring.

The Stock Market: Strong but Not Overheated

Despite global uncertainty, the S&P 500 [RW1] closed Q2 around 5,600. Valuations are slightly elevated, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.2x, but still supported by strong earnings growth.

Leaders: Technology and healthcare sectors continue to show solid performance.
Laggards: Consumer discretionary stocks have underperformed, likely due to tighter household budgets and inflation fatigue.

Key Point: While markets aren’t “cheap,” they’re not in bubble territory either. Valuations are well within range compared to long-term averages.

Final Takeaways:

Oil prices spiked but stabilized—no crisis brewing from our perspective.
Trump’s policies are shaking things up, but markets are holding steady.
The stock market is strong in our view, not in a bubble.
We would contend that long-term plans still work best—don’t let headlines hijack your strategy.

Questions? Curious how this affects your plan? Let’s talk.

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